About 'calculate debt service coverage ratio'|Debt Rattle, May 30 2008: The Inevitable
Abstract This paper will attempt to explain the U.S. Federal Reserve (commonly called the Fed) and its relationship to businesses and financial institutions in the United States. The U.S. Federal Reserve controls the money supply sets interest rates on the money they supply. Understanding the history of the Fed and how it now operates sets the parameters that can then lead to an understanding of how businesses use the available money supplies to finance their ends. For the purposes of this paper businesses are classified for the United States into general areas: member banks, commercial banks, bank associated businesses like mortgage lenders and other corporations and non-connected companies. All businesses use varying degrees of calculated financial predictive and real time rates structures to determine the current and future costs of money for their operations and so are affected to varying degrees by the actions of the Federal Reserve system. Depending on the size of business and their scope the opportunities for these businesses to acquire capital is relative to their overall position in the business community. The Federal Reserve The Fed is the Federal Reserve of the United States. The Fed is an independent organization outside the United States government. The Federal Reserve system is the United States' fundamental and central bank. The Federal Reserve of the United States was originally established to create a monetary structure to maintain stability of price as the core of the American economy. They (the Fed) could accomplish this by controlling the money supplies to try to negate and memorize economic fluctuations to create an economy where the United States that could achieve long-term prosperity (Palmer, 2000). The idea behind the Federal Reserve Board is that they represent fairly our country's agricultural, industrial, financial and commercial interests from the divisional and geographical areas across the United States. The structure of the Federal Reserve system is divided into five parts. There is a board of governors, a Federal open market committee, 12 regional Federal Reserve banks (privately owned), other private US member banks and advisory councils. Developing and implementing monetary policy is the primary responsibility and directive followed to achieve specific policies and goals to balance the U.S. economy (Jeffery, 2008). The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve system is a governmental agency located in Washington DC. The Federal Open Market Committee is structured to direct monetary policy through the oversight of open market operations. The Open Market Committee meets a minimum of eight times a year and communicates through e-mail and phone calls as needed. For example: just after the terrorist attacks of 9/11 the committee convened to discuss potential ramifications of the terrorist actions on the financial markets and created solutions to continue stabilizing the financial structure of our nation. The 12 Federal Reserve Banks are located in specific districts across the United States and work as fiscal agents of the US treasury and have their own board of directors. One of their primary purposes is to provide a governmental checking account for the United States treasury to keep the money flowing in and out of our monetary system. For example: an individual that receives a monthly Social Security check keeps getting that check on time or another individual that is making monthly payments (deposits) on their estimated or back taxes can continue to deposit the funds that are then credited properly. These 12 Federal Reserve Banks move United States currency (coins and paper bills) in and out of circulation, hold the reserve deposits for the banks and other members, run a wire transfer service, regulate and provide supervision of banks, maintain economists on staff to contribute to the regional "Beige Book" analysis structure and additionally make bank loans to the banks and other members (Pento, 2009). The "Beige Book" and reports are based upon subjective data collected by each Federal Reserve Bank and compiled together. The private member banks (not the 12) hold specific required amounts of nontransferable stock for their local Federal Reserve Bank depending on the region where they are located (Correa & Suarez, 2009). The Federal Reserve structure also has numerous other duties that can be divided into four general categories. They set the configuration of monetary policy to be generally followed. Their job is to balance the complete financial system and keep it stable. Their duties are to oversee and regulate various banking institutions and their actions. Another duty they have is to protect our citizens' credit rights. They are the structure that provides services to the United States government, various financial institutions, both inside the United States and outside our borders and also the public. The Federal Reserve sets interest rates. This setting of interest rates influences the use of money throughout the entire economic structure of the United States and world. The Federal Reserve has for many years promoted a policy and actions that have achieved measures of prosperity for the American economy area. It plays a critical and pivotal role in how our economy in the United States functions (Fleckenstein, 2010). Interest rates are affected by the Federal Reserve altering rates. In the lowering or raising of the Federal Funds rate this action correlates directly to movements in short-term interest rates. For example: the treasury bill rates (T-Bill) for a time period of less than five years would be affected significantly. And where the Federal Reserve goes with rates (to raise or lower them), the commercial banks correlate their actions in tandem. The Federal Reserve uses two primary areas to regulate economic growth: the discount rate is the set rate and the Fed funds rate is the targeted goal (Posen, 2002). Because it is the Federal Reserve's job to regulate economic functions over long periods of time consequences that can be inappropriate may be the result from the Federal Reserve curbing, allowing or even encouraging huge expansion rates of the United States economic structure. Some analysts have theorized that the Federal Reserve intentionally may create these recessions as opposed to expansions of the economy. And logically, this may make sense. Many experts understand the idea of controlling balancing economic growth and despite the bad connotation of the term the Fed historically has at times "put on the brakes" (created a short recession) to balance our economic system. The reality is that the Federal Reserve is comprised of individuals that are highly trained in the area of economics and finance. That does not mean that they all agree or that they are right every time in their assumptions, policies and implementations. It is a directed consensus of technical agreement to balance a monetary system. Historically the Federal Reserve has made any number of larger mistakes by acting in the opposite manner to what was needed for longer than needed. One of the best examples was during the 1920s when banks generally were not given money reserves they needed this promoted a recession (Jeffery, 2008). Economic policies that produce recessions are based on the idea of the Fed lowering inflation. But the unfortunate reality is it then creates a reduction in the production base which then lowers output and reduces jobs. This just proves the Federal Reserve makes errors in directive judgment sometimes. As the Fed sets policy based on past observation, judgment and future prediction this will continue. The level of available money supply is another major responsibility of the Federal Reserve (Wang, 2008). The Federal Reserve buys and sells U.S. Treasury securities and targets the money supply to control inflation. When the inflation rates are low, and unemployment is moderate most times this simplistically should yield economic growth. When inflation rates are high and unemployment also rises the tendency is for economic growth to slow down. It is a balancing act based on the implementation of monetary policies of the Federal Reserve since the Federal Reserve controls the money supply and its movement structure. The potential for effective flow of money once it leaves the Federal Reserve and is distributed out into the member banks and other systems depends on many factors. If the interest rates are too low an opportunistic business (at any level) may not lend out a given amount of money for potential future profit of principal plus interest. This if done by enough of them creates a slowdown in the flow of money in our monetary system. Here is a very simplistic example of how money moves through the financial system. If the total amount of dollars needed for the entire system to function effectively is $800,000,000,000 yearly but the entire system has only $600,000,000,000 yearly available then there is the distinct shortage of capital. This shortage of capital creates a demand for capital. With this shortage, the need is greater than the supply and makes the dollar as capital worth more, and competitors would want to loan out money and raise interest rates on loans. If on the other hand the opposite for these numbers was true then there would be an oversupply of cash capital available. With the oversupply of capital available competitors would generally relax terms (to a degree) and parameters needed to qualify (to a degree) on potential loans and most likely even lower interest rates on these loans in order to facilitate moving the money like a commodity. It does comes down to a simple law of supply and demand pushing individual and group actions and that is based on the cost of money and available money supply levels (Fleckenstein, 2010). The flow of money from a lender to someone borrowing it is the basic financial and economic structure used in the United States banking system. These groups are in business to achieve a purpose. At the top the Federal Reserve has been given the responsibility to regulate the money supply and at the bottom end corporations need a share of the money supply to operate their businesses to further benefit themselves and the economy. The entire structure provides economic benefits as money changes hands and is used for a value purpose. As a business become smarter and larger; they can look for alternate sources of financial capital for operational needs. The proximity of reliance on the Federal Reserve to keep the flow of money operating through the same system of banks, lenders and finally the alternate other businesses becomes less important as a company grows in size structure and scope making alternatives possible for capitalization needs. The financial crisis that started in mid-2007 create a domino effect that eventually encircle the globe (Wang, 2008). Mid-2007 through 2008 was a period of global trade collapse. Financial markets have been slow to recover since then. The Federal Reserve is constantly concerned about the big economic balancing act they must perform. Individual companies no matter what their size are not the Federal Reserve's real concern. The Fed has most recently been flooding huge volumes of money into the national monetary market structure and keeping interest rates extremely low. It is designed to provoke a recovery of the United States economic structure. And while interest rates are low the available cash can be difficult to qualify for depending on the size and background of the business looking for the money. The Federal Reserve has been using quantitative easing, and hopefully sometime soon they will stop buying treasury notes and mortgage-backed securities and allow the system to reset itself naturally. However, no matter what actions the Federal Reserve takes, all businesses must put themselves first as a consideration of survival. By taking into account the available pertinent data and existing economic structures nationwide as well as globally as they applied sound financial practices to continue to analyze, plan and handle their capital and assets as a directed function of operating their own businesses. Businesses and the Federal Reserve System The Federal Reserve and businesses are connected in many ways but primarily by the businesses using methods of determining value as related to current and future cost of money for their businesses. For the purposes of this paper; United States businesses will be classified into three general categories. These categories are: banks, directly related businesses to banks (like mortgage and security companies) and other non-affiliated business corporations. In addition these business can be subdivided by their scope into sections of local, regional, national, multinational and global. Depending on where a business falls in these categories and sections the Federal Reserve's actions affects their ability to function and create profit levels. The reason for the sectoring into categories and divisions is to be able to clarify how money is moved around, to show the present and future cost of money, to detail how profits are made and in the end to show why financial analysis coupled with a thorough, realistic understanding of financial matters will benefit a business. The economy in the United States is based on general principles of this financial money movement. That any money which is borrowed (relative to any U.S. financial market) is materially affected by the assigned interest rate that must be paid back along with the principle. The time duration of a loan is set and correlates to that action and effects the future value created. There are primary and secondary capital markets. And subdividing these are the equity and debt segments. For example: primary capital markets in the debt area are bank loans and initial debt security offerings. Secondary capital markets in the equity area related to the buying and selling of stocks on the securities markets. And it all relates to how a corporation or any group creates value (Romer, 1999). Here is another simplistic example with simple interest (not compound): the first person (the Fed) lends the second person $800,000 and the interest rate is 2%. Then the second person (a commercial bank) needs to make money on their transaction also so they lend the $800,000 to a third person (mortgage broker company) for an interest rate of 3.5% then the third person lends the money $800,000 to the fourth person (a corporation) at an interest rate of 4.5% and that fourth person goes out and purchases a small building with the loan money and now has a physical location for operation of their business. This business that now owns the building makes regular mortgage payments that include the principal and interest for the benefit of the lender. This simplified pattern shows the flowing interconnection of financial profit down throughout the structure. If it all worked this easily and effectively there would be no trouble with the financial structure of the Federal Reserve, our banks and our businesses. However so many factors can create complications or alternates depending on the originator, the borrower and the situation from both macro and micro circumstances. The complications may come from the time duration, interest rate or structure, insolvencies causing defaults, general inflation can erode the future profit, sale of a discounted note to others, originator changes like mergers can effect it and other circumstances can change the actual and future value of the example loan. In addition to all of these potential complications the structure for generally acquiring corporate financing is changing. Traditionally the Federal Reserve Banks set credit policy structure. Individuals located at these Federal Reserve Banks examine the documents and financial statements of the business that want to borrow money. They then made a judgment call about loaning money. Sometimes their subjective judgment was validated and sometimes not. In an effort to reduce losses and mitigate the loss variables new techniques were implemented widely in 2000 (Schwartz, 2008). These newer systems for the Federal Reserve Banks are highly automated for lending decisions. The credit scoring models for mortgage originations and credit cards are being based on automated information from databases retrieved that may or may not be accurate. And in many cases a beginning business either does not exist or has no record in these databases, this creates a circumstance of the actual new business who wants the loan being rejected automatically and having to take the time and money to appeal the automated decision. The cutoff numbers that are used in scoring potentials are limiting human judgment of highly trained financial managers. For example: if a credit score is 650 and a business has asked for a very small loan of $50,000 this credit score would allow for automatic approval without any human oversight. It makes sense that the performance of these loans is good. However, it creates a condition where as a business that knows it will need loans will tailor make itself for the parameters that are automatically judged. In addition, it means that a business that has a credit score slightly below automatic approval needs to additionally undergo extensive review for appeal by the lender. What does all this have to do with the Fed and that financial movement of money? Simply that if a business can and often does manipulate their own financial accounting records, they can structure these accounting records to reflect what they prefer outsiders to see. This can affect any number of areas of credit including qualifying for a bank loan to purchase a building to expand their operations and so on. Earnings quality is the main importance of full disclosure. If a company uses conservative reporting and minimizes risk to earnings further examination and analysis will show this company to be fair in their reporting and the tendency would be to imply that any loan requested by the company (if they qualify) will not be defaulted on (Romer, 1999). A financial analysis traditionally has certain steps and procedures to evaluate information for making decisions. It is standard to use a sequential six step process for financial analysis. These steps are: identification of the reason behind doing a financial analysis, understanding the structure of the company being examined, applying standard and proper financial analysis techniques, examination of the accounting structure details, a general comprehensive analysis leading to some decisions and/or a recommendation. Part of all of this (a financial analysis) is an understanding of the company and its placement in relation to the structure of the other business segments. For example: it is unrealistic to have a small local company owner make predictions and act on those predictions that if they acquired enough capital (a single huge bank loan) they could exponentially grow the company to another level. Their belief that they could then position themselves as a top leader against their competitors is dubious. The belief that they could corner a global market in an single common item against an industry of competitors supplying the same item at a lower cost is a fallacy that can be exposed from careful analysis and recommendation for future operations. To be realistic is one of the functions of a financial analysis. The numbers must be accurate. It is the job of a financial analysis, to insure that "the blue sky projections" are not used but the reliance on realistic actions for continuation and reasonable growth is followed instead. Businesses must consider their current and future value of assets and liabilities including their inventories and pension funds to be handled. In addition, using quantitative financial analysis allows for an examination of the key elements in context, which is helpful for planning the future. The technical structure is about ratios, time series, cash flows and comparative models. Again, this kind of analysis must be done using accurate information that actually represents the business. The identification of any flexibility in accounting policies and disclosures must be included. Earnings management potential must be evaluated. A major issue in any analysis is the identification of red flag items. A comprehensive analysis can be undertaken to identify and bring together key points for making decisions. A rating scale along with a summary should be undertaken at this point. The rationale behind the decisions and summary should be sound. All this should be done in relation to the general financial structures and controls available including any from capital markets, credit decisions, equity investment decisions, SEC regulations and accounting regulators (Palmer, 2000). The value created is a function of profit derived from a business operation. It is the owner(s) or the designated management's responsibility to control identifiable risks and achieve profitability by utilizing all the resources as effectively as possible. The desired outcome for a business from efforts directed towards operations and discretionary accounting methods yields best value benefits. Earnings quality (that is the quality of the asset generating and thus derived from) is important (Jeffery, 2008). In addition the relationship of risk to benefit must be part of the bigger viewpoint, objectively used when reviewing financial analysis data. The discretionary aspects of using reasonable variable earnings manipulation must be thoroughly understood before being implemented as part of any agency theory employed. In the end, the accounting choices are discretionary for any business. Under GAAP a company may create reserves, do off balance sheet financing, leave out some obligations and liabilities and potentially even overstate potential performance using variations in revenue recognition (Wang, 2008). So a business can actually manipulate their own reported income by structuring the reporting structure of when they recognize their own critical data from their bookkeeping practices. For example: some income may be classified onto the books for next year's cycle. Depreciation and employee benefits also have discretionary aspects for earnings manipulation. Now let us look at the relationship between the Federal Reserve, the flow of moneys, the volume of money being available and businesses that use capital to operate. Any business from a tiny individual proprietorship (for example: a young man mowing yards to make money) up to and including global corporations is affected by the flow of money. While it is not as common for the young man (or woman) mowing yards to do a financial analysis of their business it becomes a more common process to use to assist a company in making the correct decisions to provide for the business as it grows larger. A manager, owner of the business or delegated individual can analyze the flow of money for current and future possibilities. No matter what size a business is, all businesses use some form of financial analysis on their records and apply it to make the best possible decision for operations. In addition, the size of a business does not matter when it comes to understanding and applying principles relating to the proper use of calculating the time value of money for their organization. Of course these two processes and procedures need to relate directly to the inflation rate from the Federal Reserve printing paper money that in access in circulation can devalue a business' money being used as operating capital or in the case of physical assets like buildings, land and vehicles also decrease in potential net worth. The reality is that no matter if a business operating in the United States is very small like a proprietorship that sells hotdogs from a vending cart located on a downtown street corner all the way up in size to the biggest of the huge conglomerates that operate globally they all depend on cash flow from structured operations to keep their businesses running (Mouhammed, 2008). Is Generally these two examples companies can both can get cash from two primary sources: investment and financing (Schwartz, 2008). Any business makes use of their money by purchasing items and services needed for operations. This could be the hotdogs that are resold by the hotdog vendor or it could be the accident insurance that is paid for potential replacement for the hotdog vending cart. Financing cash could be acquired when the hotdog vendor asks for a loan from a bank for a new hotdog vending cart or a second cart for expansion. Of course evaluation of the analysis of accounting performance for both these example companies becomes the bottom line that often is the decider for financing (Meltzer, 2003). However generally as a company or corporation grows in size the potential avenues widen for the acquisition of capital. The hotdog vendor's proprietorship has a more limited ability to qualify for varying sizes of loans. The bank or a finance company after examining the vendors financial records may be willing to extend credit for a hotdog cart ($12,000), company vehicle ($27,000), or even potentially the purchase of real estate ($150,000) to centralize the hotdog vendor's business location. The reality is a hotdog vendor and a huge global corporation can have identical credit scores but qualify only into certain ranges of maximum debt in total because of their profits resulting from cash flow, liquidity, sales activity and debt structure (Pento, 2009). The debt ratio of total liabilities to total assets, along with long-term trends and projected potential growth rates for either of these example companies also control the maximum point of financial debt offered because of the need for paying back their loans. It is true that there are more potential opportunities for financing are larger for bigger companies. For example: let's look at a business that specializes in ladies plus size clothing that currently has 12 stores located in various states in the eastern United States. They have more leverage and financing alternatives. The size of this company in relation to sales numbers, assets owned, liabilities incurred and overhead as structured gives them an automatic level of respect from potential investors or lenders because of the volume of positive cash flow created. When approaching a commercial bank this ladies clothing chain would be considered a better risk by the bank than the hotdog vendor's company even if financially sales and net profit were trending down over time for their industry because of a ongoing recession. This medium-sized ladies clothing chain has verifiable accounting dollar value of the owned and already paid for assets available as collateral and can provide extensive details on all current and potential projected liabilities. The proportionate assets to liabilities ratio along with the multiple location dispersion for coverage "to attract, pull in and sell to customers" gives more reason for bank confidence behind any loan monies. It all becomes a factor of the financial analysis and evaluation of the structural data and because there is a larger amount of data in more detail covering the assets, liabilities, expenses, income, and so on. When the cost of capital is too high from a United States bank or lender a big business can look elsewhere. With a relative increase in size for a business the potential for financing keeps increasing. This can include options for the bigger company with the larger scope for finding funding including : IPOs, relational partnerships, stock issuance systems and creative variations in investment techniques (Wang, 2008). There are exceptions and a business can grow up to or be designed for a larger scope of activities and coverage areas and actively target financing alternatives (Pento, 2009). For example: Google quickly grew in relative size because of the nature of the search engine and database business structure from their original design. When word of a Google IPO offering was released it was so valued that they set a record for opening IPO price. Their system of financing over time that started with initial loans from private investors and then finally led them to use IPOs has buffered them to some degree from the United States Federal Reserve ongoing monetary actions. However by continuing to keep some of their Google facilities based in the United States they will currently be directly affected in their day to day and future operational costs by the continuing inflation rate. While it is true the United States Federal Reserve effects the monetary system of the United States it also effects the global monetary system network (Parks, 2000). This is because the United States dollar has for over 30 years been the preferred currency for many nations reserves. But because it is a percentage share of the complete structure its impact on interest rates and money supply in the United States is large and then lessons as the scope of affected relationships decrease (Wang, 2008). Currently it is believed by experts that the world's two biggest economies; China and the United Sates will continue to be linked by supply and demand structures (Schwartz, 2008). For both countries, the capital management of their money will continue to be subjective primarily because of self-interest for their own country's survival needs. In addition to these two giant economies the employment cost structure of some other countries has created business opportunities that some companies have taken advantage of to increase profits. Because of the nature of global economies, including specific countries with low employment cost rates, some businesses have chosen at different economic time periods to leave the United States and set up operations in other countries (Fleckenstein, 2010). This has created a reduction in their overhead and their cost of doing business. But overall it is a combination and total of factors that control the creation of value for any business. And sometimes the move by a business to a foreign country has not gone as projected. And in the case of the "help desk" industry in general the trend has been for many of these operations to be brought back into the United States despite the higher costs. For other companies it has been worthwhile. For example: a global corporation like Coca-Cola with hundreds of main offices located in 200 countries including Saudi Arabia, England, the United States and Mexico can secure a loan from a local bank in China for local use if they so desire (and the local bank agrees to it). The numbers economically relating to the applicable financials need to be "right" for this to occur. This circumstance would be especially applicable if Coca-Cola was setting up a partnership with a local company to open up a bottling plant in China (Posen, 2002). Conclusion The United States Federal Reserve will continue to operate and plan to create the long-term stability and growth in the United States' monetary system. Through applying an understanding of the effects of the Federal Reserve's actions on the money structure of the United States any business can be prepared to take measures to protect their current and future operations as needed. Depending on the functional size of the business and their operational scope it can be said that generally for the foreseeable future the realistic trend for most all United States based businesses will be towards looking for, acquiring and using various forms of capital when feasibility available for continued business functioning, growth and long-term survival. References Correa, R. & Suarez, G. (2009). Firm Volatility and Banks: Evidence from U.S. Banking. Retrieved from http://www.FederalReserveBoard.com/researchand statistics/ Fleckenstein, B. (2010). Why the Fed won't stop printing money. Retrieved from http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/currency/why-the-Fed-wont-stop printing-money. Htm Jeffery, E. (2008). How Does The Federal Reserve Affect Interest Rates? Retrieved from http://ezinearticles.com/?How-Does-The-Federal-Reserve-Affect-Interest-Rates?&id=404238 Meltzer, A. (2003). A History of the Federal Reserve. Retrieved from Http://www.UC.edu/bib/his/class/research/history/historyofthefrederalreserve.htm Mouhammed, A. (2008). The Federal Reserve and the American business cycles. Retrieved http://www.allbusiness.com/economy-economic-indicators/economic-indicators-interest/11766378-1.html Palmer, G. (2000). Credit Scoring for Small Business Lending.. Retrieved from http://www.frbsf.org/publications/community/investments/cra99-3/page1.html Parks, K. (2000). The truth may hurt, but financial projections should be brutally honest. Retrieved from http://www.bankrate.com/brm/news/biz/Cashflow_banking/20000406.asp Pento, M. (2009). Fed Gaining Complete Control Over Money Supply. Retried from http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-pento/Fed-gaining-complete-cont_b_173172.html Posen, A. (2002). Six practical Views of Central Bank Transparency. Retrieved from http://docs.google.com/cache:YlLBnZhoL-0J:www.iie.com/publications/papers/posen0502.pdf+Faust+and+Svensson Romer, C. (1999). Changes in Business Cycles: Evidence and Explanations. Retrieved from Http://www. JEP.edu/ch13/Romer/1999EandE.htm Schwartz, A. (2008). Money Supply. Retrieved from http://www.econlib.org/library/Enc/MoneySupply.html Wang, J. (2008). Durable Goods and the Collapse of Global Trade. Retrieved from http://www.dallasFed.org/research/eclett/2010/el1002.html |
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